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  • Canada’s CPI Inflation Data on the Radar

    Canada’s CPI Inflation Data on the Radar

    • May 21, 2024

    Overextended to the Downside in the Canadian Dollar Unsurprisingly, the CFTC COT positioning data shows that large speculators are heavily weighed on the short side of the Canadian dollar at the moment, which is at its highest since 2017 and resembles an overstretched market (reportable open interest is net short Canadian dollar futures by more

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  • US CPI Inflation Cooled in April, Sparking a Dovish Reaction

    US CPI Inflation Cooled in April, Sparking a Dovish Reaction

    • May 15, 2024

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US CPI inflation came in as expected and exhibited a deceleration in consumer price inflation for both headline and core numbers year-on-year. We also saw a miss in US retail sales data – MoM: 0.0% versus 0.4% expected – which added to the dovish market reaction. Year

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  • Dollar Index In the Crosshairs Ahead of US CPI Data

    Dollar Index In the Crosshairs Ahead of US CPI Data

    • May 15, 2024

    Ahead of today’s US CPI release, the US Dollar Index is hovering just north of major support coming in at 104.78, and is seen testing the grip of channel support, extended from the low of 105.21. These are important barriers to monitor. Inflation Expected to Slow A broad miss in the data today will likely

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  • UK Wage Growth Remains Elevated

    UK Wage Growth Remains Elevated

    • May 14, 2024

    Earlier this morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the latest numbers on UK wage growth and employment data. Despite a cooling labour market, wage growth remains elevated, and although we have another print on 11 June ahead of the next update from the Bank of England (BoE), this will be unwelcome news for

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  • Interesting Day Ahead Tomorrow for GBP and the EUR

    Interesting Day Ahead Tomorrow for GBP and the EUR

    • May 13, 2024

    First out of the gate tomorrow, UK employment numbers and wage data will be seen at 6:00 am GMT. Employment and unemployment metrics are still considered unstable data in light of the survey issues. Therefore, attention will be firmly on wage numbers. Deceleration in Wages Despite CPI inflation slowing and on course to reach the

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  • US and UK Data in Focus This Week

    US and UK Data in Focus This Week

    • May 11, 2024

    Wage Growth in Focus Following Dovish BoE UK employment and wage data will be widely watched this week on Tuesday at 6:00 am GMT. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) claimed a large part of the spotlight; albeit leaving the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% (16-year peak), a dovish shift was delivered in the

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  • Bank of England Update: A Mixed Bag

    Bank of England Update: A Mixed Bag

    • May 9, 2024

    BoE Holds the Bank Rate at 5.25% As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) held the Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% for a sixth consecutive meeting, its highest level since 2008. However, what was key today was the central bank signalled it could be getting closer to easing policy in the summer, possibly

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  • Week Ahead: BoE and UK GDP in the Spotlight

    Week Ahead: BoE and UK GDP in the Spotlight

    • May 4, 2024

    Following Friday’s huge miss in US jobs data – which triggered dollar selling, a bid in equities and bonds, and a sizeable dovish repricing in rates (markets are now implying 53bps of easing this year for the Fed funds target rate, with September fully priced in for a 25bp cut as opposed to November’s meeting

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  • FOMC in the Rear-View Mirror; NFP Eyed

    FOMC in the Rear-View Mirror; NFP Eyed

    • May 2, 2024

    The update from May’s FOMC rate announcement proved more dovish than expected, which naturally weighed on the US dollar (sending the DXY to lows of 105.44) and US yields, as well as, initially at least, underpinning major US equity indices. The FOMC left the Fed funds target rate unchanged for a sixth consecutive session at

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  • FOMC: A Wait-and-See Approach

    FOMC: A Wait-and-See Approach

    • April 30, 2024

    It is pretty much a sealed deal that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold the line tomorrow at 6:00 pm GMT, keeping its overnight benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a sixth consecutive meeting. While there is no update for economic projections at this meeting, you will recall from the last policy-setting meeting

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  • Week Ahead: FOMC and Jobs Data in Sight

    Week Ahead: FOMC and Jobs Data in Sight

    • April 27, 2024

    Well, another week has passed, and the prospect of the Fed cutting rates this year is becoming more remote. Highlights last week include the US GDP first estimate slowing more than expected for Q1 to an annualised rate of 1.6%, far surpassing economists’ estimates of 2.5% and the Atlanta GDPNow model’s estimate of 2.7% real

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  • US GDP Data Delivers Mixed Vibe: Growth Slows While Inflation Accelerates

    US GDP Data Delivers Mixed Vibe: Growth Slows While Inflation Accelerates

    • April 25, 2024

    US GDP, according to the first estimate (or ‘advance estimate’) for real GDP growth, revealed a HUGE miss and stresses a cooling economy. According to the Commerce Department, US economic activity slowed significantly in Q1 of 2024, increasing at an annualised rate of 1.6%. This fell considerably short of economists’ estimates of 2.5% (the estimate

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